The shortlist for this year’s BBC Sports Personality of the Year was unveiled on Monday, with Olympic and Paralympic medallists dominating the line-up. Of the 12 athletes, Rory McIlroy is the only one not to have competed in the London 2012 Olympic Games. After controversy last year over the lack of female representation on the shortlist, this year’s competition contains five women: Nicola Adams, Jessica Ennis, Katherine Grainger, Ellie Simmonds and Sarah Storey. Simmonds and Storey, along with wheelchair athlete David Weir, also make up an unprecedented, three personality strong Paralympic challenge for the trophy. So which athletes have made the final list and what are their chances of taking home the title?

Nicola Adams: First female boxer ever to win an Olympic Gold. While undoubtedly a hugely significant moment for women’s boxing as a whole, Adams will do well to trouble the top three in a year when winning an Olympic Gold Medal doesn’t even guarantee you a place on the shortlist. Chances: 4/10

Ben Ainslie: Became Britain’s most decorated sailor with four Gold medals, winning gold at London 2012 in the Finn Class. Ben’s battle with the Dane Jonas Hogh-Christensen captured the imagination in the Olympics and he is certainly now, if he wasn’t before, a legend of his sport. However, sailing as a sport may not command the public attention required to win the overall title.  Chances: 6.5/10

Jessica Ennis: Gold in the Heptathlon at London 2012. As the poster girl of London 2012, the nation heaved a sigh of relief when she delivered the gold medal that was expected of her. Performing to her full ability under such unimaginable levels of pressure has certainly earned her a place as the nation’s darling, which gives her a genuine chance at the title. Chances: 8.5/10

Mo Farah: Gold in the 5,000m and 10,000m at London 2012. Mo-fever swept the country this summer which, in my mind, makes him the favourite for the trophy. Fending off the might of the African long distance runners is an unbelievable achievement, but to do it twice in a row and in such style captured the hearts of the nation. Chances: 10/10

Katherine Grainger: Gold in the Women’s’ Double Sculls after three silvers in previous Games. A compelling and inspiring story and a lesson never to accept failure as an option. As is the case with many contenders this year, and it appears ridiculous on first reading, she may struggle to challenge with only one gold medal in 2012. Chances: 5/10

Sir Chris Hoy: British Record Total of six gold medals. Gold in the Keirin and the Team Sprint at London 2012.  Sir Chris dispelled any doubts about his status of king of the sprints at London 2012, becoming the most decorated Olympian in British history. However, winning the prize in 2008 may mean that he is overlooked by the public this time around.  Chances: 6.5/10

Sarah Storey: Took her total to a British record equalling 11 Paralympic gold medals. Gold medals in the C4-5 Road Race, Road Time Trial, 500m Time Trial and Individual Pursuit. Storey’s haul of four gold medals from London 2012 is a monumental achievement and she would be a very worthy winner of the trophy. Hopefully her achievements are not overlooked due to a lack of coverage. It would be great to see her make the podium. Chances: 7/10

David Weir: Won gold in the Wheelchair Marathon, 5,000m, 1,500m and the 800m at London 2012 Paralympics. ‘The Weirwolf’ was formidable at the 2012 Paralympics, dominating over a vast range of distances, a hugely impressive physical accomplishment. I would be extremely surprised if David Weir missed out on a top 3 spot this year.  Chances: 9.5/10

Rory McIlroy: Won the U.S. PGA Championship, The Ryder Cup and the World Tour Championship. Finished the season as world number one.  Despite a successful year for the Northern Irishman, it would be a massive shock if the trophy was won by the only athlete not to compete at London 2012. Surely this Olympic year must bring an Olympic winner? Chances: 4/10

Bradley Wiggins: First Briton to win the Tour de France, Olympic Time Trial Gold. A truly outstanding year from ‘Wiggo’, earning two of the most sought after titles in his sport. With the cycling faithful behind him, he could well be lifting another trophy before the year is out. Chances: 9.5/10

Ellie Simmonds: Gold in the SM6 400m freestyle and 200m Individual Medley at London 2012 Paralympics. It is easy to forget that Simmonds already has four Paralmypic gold medals at the age of only 18.  Although she has continued her success since winning Young Sports Personality of the Year in 2008, the competition this year may prove too strong.  Chances: 6/10

Andy Murray: Winner of the U.S. Open Tennis, gold in Men’s Singles Tennis at London 2012. This has been a real breakthrough year for Murray, finally winning that elusive major and, through his Olympic gold, finally seemed to endear himself to the British public. A podium finish is possible. Chances: 7.5/10

Those who missed the cut: Charlotte Dujardin, Victoria Pendleton, Alastair Brownlee, Greg Rutherford, Laura Trott, Ian Poulter and Jonnie Peacock.