It is a story that has become all too familiar; Syrian families suffering in the midst of shelling, torture and bloodshed, whilst the world waits fearful of intervention in the Middle East. The Syrian conflict may have not been a prominent matter to world leaders recently, but the escalation of shelling beyond Assad’s borders are a potent reminder that further inaction will only ensue further chaos for the region. Turkey’s aspirations, the US elections and Iranian economic woes are only some of the international complications to add to the myriad of Syrian crises.
A motion passed this week by the Turkish government has given permission for its troops to conduct military operations in Syria after cross-border shelling killed five Turkish citizens. This marks a new step in the conflict and one that Turkey, as a NATO and prospective EU member state, has long tried to avoid. The desperate troubles of its southern neighbour have long been a pressing matter to the government in Ankara, with an estimated 100,000 refugees fleeing the fighting, but Turkey’s strengthening relationship with the US and Europe means that it has tried to steer clear of further involvement. It was merely hoped that the Syrian issue would resolve itself and that the nightmare Turkey now finds itself part of would never materialise
Turkey’s cautious approach is indicative of the observing international community and one that cannot be continued for much longer. As Barack Obama campaigns for the presidential re-election next month, one of his strengths is his record on foreign policy, with the overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi and capture of Osama Bin Laden highlighting his credentials and brave decision making. However Obama has not been as forthcoming on the Syria conflict, due to the complexities of Syria’s diplomatic position in the Middle East and in part due to a reluctance to displease a war-weary American electorate. Even the historic bond between US and Israel has fractured somewhat with this indecision and the UN veto capabilities of Russia and China cast an imposing shadow on American policies. America and its NATO partners would no doubt opt for a no-fly zone and operational help for rebel forces but setting the Syrian conflict apart from last year’s Libyan revolution is Russia’s reluctance and Assad’s vast military strength, of which he has not hesitated to use.
International nerves and inaction on Syria is also owing to the heightened tensions with Iran and its constant warnings to the outside world. As it is widely believed that the Assad regime is heavily funded by Tehran, the 40% drop in the value of the Iranian Rial this week could escalate Syrian oppression further, provoked by a nervous, weakened Ahmadinejad. The current US election foreign policy rhetoric has focused more on America’s fear of Iran’s capabilities than of the Syrian crisis, but their strict sanctions on the Islamic republic could yet become hazardous.
Assad’s grip on power is slowly loosening but not quick enough for the estimated 31,000 who have already died and the countless more hurt at his forces hands. However, despite the lack of mercy and humanity shown by this supposed leader of the Syrian people, any prompt resolution of the conflict will necessitate a diplomatic solution agreed with Assad, even if that means immunity for him and numerous other Syrian leaders. Although this is a very hard concept to justify within our society, options such as military intervention are not feasible and a heightened, prolonged conflict will only result in further suffering. The example of the overthrow of Colonel Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, where the power vacuum formed has left the new government struggling to maintain control, illustrates an outcome Syria must avoid. Russia, respected by Assad, provides the key to dialogue and diplomatic resolve and pressure must be put on Putin to stop the atrocities.
The approach of world leaders thus far has been of too many soft words and evasion of this complex dangerous conflict and the recent developments have merely added fuel to the fire. The time for decisive, clear action is ever approaching and for the security of the Middle East and the hopes of the Syrian people, that moment cannot come soon enough.